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DSS News
D. J. Power, Editor
March 16, 2003 -- Vol. 4, No. 6
A Bi-Weekly Publication of DSSResources.COM
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AMCIS 2003 Call for Papers. Submissions due March 17, 2003.
Check http://galletta.business.pitt.edu/amcis2003/
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Featured:
* Ask Dan! - How has and will Moore's Law impact computerized
decision support?
* What's New at DSSResources.COM
* DSS News Releases
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Check the article by A. Mohamed on Teaching Decision
Support Systems Using Spreadsheets at DSSResources.COM
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Ask Dan!
by Daniel J. Power
How has and will Moore's Law impact computerized decision support?
There is a certain comfort that comes from identifying predictive
"natural" laws. They simplify and make sense of otherwise complex
phenomena. Moore's Law has provided that type of comfort to many
technologists for almost 40 years. So what is Moore's Law?
In 1965, Gordon Moore wrote a paper for Electronics magazine in a
feature "The experts look ahead" titled "Cramming more components onto
integrated circuits". He began "The future of integrated electronics is
the future of electronics itself. The advantages of integration will
bring about a proliferation of electronics, pushing this science into
many new areas. Integrated circuits will lead to such wonders as home
computers ..."
According to the Intel web site, Moore observed an exponential growth in
the number of transistors per integrated circuit and predicted that the
trend would continue. The popularized statement of Moore's Law is that
the number of transistors in an integrated circuit doubles every 18 to
24 months. Intel expects Moore's Law will continue at least through the
end of this decade. The "mission of Intel's technology development team
is to continue to break down barriers to Moore's Law".
Gordon Moore helped found Fairchild Semiconductor and then Intel. His
efforts and those of his colleagues made sure integrated circuit
technology evolved and improved at the predicted rate of progress.
The evidence of the past 35 years supports the conclusion Moore reached
in 1965. Intel introduced the 4004 microprocessor in 1971 with 2,250
components. The 8008 chip introduced in 1972 had 2,500. By 1974, the
8080 chip had 5,000 components. The groundbreaking 8086 microprocessor
of 1978 had 29,000 components. In 1982, the 286 chip had 120,000; the
386 processor in 1985 had 275,000; by 1989 the 486 DX processor had
1,180,000 components on a small chip. Once the million barrier was
broken, the number and density of components expanded rapidly. In 1993,
the Pentium processor had 3,100,000 components and the Pentium II
processor in 1997 had 7,500,000. In 1999, Intel introduced the Pentium
III processor with 24,000,000 components. Approximately 18 months later,
Intel announced the Pentium 4 processor with 42,000,000 components. On
March 12, 2003, Intel introduced it's Centrino mobile technology
integrating wireless capability.
The two most important Integrated Circuit product categories are the
microprocessor and memory devices. These products provide the technology
that enables computerized decision support. As the technology has
gotten more powerful and more cost effective new applications have
become feasible.
Improvements in microelectronics have stimulated and enabled the
development of decision support technologies. The earliest Integrated
Circuits provided some limited decision support capabilities for Apollo
Space missions. The chips of the late 1970s made it possible to develop
spreadsheets and PC-based decision support applications. Specialized
chips in the early 1980s stimulated Artificial Intelligence research.
The 386 and 486 DX processor made client-server applications and GDSS
feasible. Improvements in memory size and speed in the early 1990s made
data warehousing feasible. Putting more components on microprocessors
miniturized our computers and supported development of innovative input
and output technologies. Suppliers of innovative microelectronics make
innovative DSS possible.
There seems to be a 2-3 year lag in the diffusion of improvements in
microelectronics into decision support applications. Currently, the
capability of the Pentium 4 for enhanced graphics and visualization is
reflected more in video games than in DSS. The Centrino mobile
innovation can potentially expand the presence of decision support in
our work and personal lives.
Moore's Law has served as a stimulus and benchmark for developments in
microelectronics and information processing. It has become a driver of
innovation and progress in the semiconductor industry. Expectations
matter! Decision support applications need to exploit the enhanced
capabilities that result from cramming more components on integrated
circuits.
There has been a mutually beneficial relationship between innovation in
semiconductors and end-use decision support applications. The advance of
technology lets us work to implement what we can envision to create
innovative DSS. Advanced decision support will result from technology
advances, opportunistic and fortuitous circumstances, and from the
active imaginations and dedicated actions of innovators.
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References
Moore, Gordon E., "Cramming more components onto integrated circuits",
Electronics, Vol. 38, No. 8, April 19, 1965, URL
ftp://download.intel.com/research/silicon/moorespaper.pdf
Schaller, Bob, "The Origin, Nature, and Implications of 'MOORE'S LAW':
The Benchmark of Progress in Semiconductor Electronics", September 26,
1996, http://mason.gmu.edu/~rschalle/moorelaw.html.
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What's New at DSSResources.COM
03/14/2003 Posted Mohamed, A., "Teaching Decision Support Systems using
Spreadsheets". Check the articles page.
03/07/2003 Silicon Graphics Staff, "Thomson Consumer Products Division
uses visualization technology for decision support", sgi, Inc., 2002.
Check the case studies page.
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DSS News Releases - March 3 to March 14, 2003
03/14/2003 IBM ranks #1 in worldwide revenue for high performance
computing.
03/13/2003 CrossAccess Corporation announces J2EE connector architecture
support for legacy mainframe data integration.
03/13/2003 OpenEAI Project releases functional open source sample
enterprise.
03/12/2003 PeopleSoft Enterprise Portal 8.8 first to deliver integrated
real-time collaboration; new features drive efficiencies beyond the
enterprise.
03/12/2003 Intel launches Intel? Centrino? mobile technology.
03/12/2003 Canada's largest retailer Hudson's Bay Company selects
MicroStrategy's business intelligence platform as enterprise-wide
standard.
03/12/2003 Oracle delivers enhanced data integration tool for
enterprise-level business intelligence.
03/12/2003 Baan launches new SupportEye Knowledge-Based diagnostic
expert system.
03/12/2003 General Dynamics selected to integrate next-generation
electronic warfare ground system for U.S. Army.
03/12/2003 New study points to organizational politics as key barrier to
commercial acceptance of grid and shared computing.
03/12/2003 Space Imaging introduces IKONOS Standard Ortho satellite
imagery product line.
03/11/2003 Island Pacific signs first contract for decision support
software; Texas-based sporting goods chain first to implement IP's new
software offering.
03/11/2003 MEDecision integrates medical management at Blue Cross and
Blue Shield of Oklahoma.
03/10/2003 New web tools help consumers pick a hospital, assess health
risks, compare prescriptions; become more informed health care decision
makers.
03/06/2003 PM Solutions introduces first assessment tool for measuring
the value of project management improvement initiatives.
03/05/2003 Mark's Work Wearhouse selects Crystal Decisions to take pulse
of sales at 300+ stores.
03/04/2003 Intergraph's IntelliWhere Division and Trimble team to
deliver mobile resource management solutions.
03/03/2003 Leading worldwide retailer Benetton Group selects
MicroStrategy.
03/03/2003 Herman Miller uses Business Objects to deliver key data to
the corporate desktop.
03/03/2003 Extended Systems strengthens Mobile Solutions Kit with
real-time mobile groupware access capabilities.
03/03/2003 PricingExpert(R) acts as complete solution for gas sales,
marketing, contract management and forward book management.
03/03/2003 Manufacturing companies continue to select PeopleSoft Supply
Chain Management; Manufacturing and Supply Chain Planning solutions
drive strong demand.
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DSS News is copyrighted (c) 2003 by D. J. Power. Please send your questions
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